observations late summer early Fall 2020

started by manowx, September 23, 2020
2 replies to this discussion
    • Member

      A pattern of weak to non-existent cold fronts dominated summer.  Drought manifest in New England.  Currently, tropical cyclones appear to be the only inclement weather in the contiguous US (  an absence of extra-tropical )  The polar front remains in Canada.  What has changed is that extra-tropical cyclones in Canada have become stronger.  The attendant, stronger cold fronts swing into New England; increasing the chance of rain.  That said, the polar front is making little progress south; as was the case the last two years.  Winter is likely to be delayed again.  However, there are signs winter will be quasi-established at some point.  Proponents of the Grand Solar Minimum will ascribe.  As this supposed long term solar minimum is only in its infancy, I cannot subscribe to solar influence having a significant effect this winter.  That may have to wait for the next solar minimum (  10 years from present )   Even that prognostication might fall flat as the geo-magnetic field may weaken further, countering global cooling visa vis the Sun.  Increased cloud nucleation from more cosmic rays has yet to occur.  The claim of attribution, or at least significance probably bogus.  Given the aforementioned, I do not see a relapse to harsh winters of yore.  A near normal 2021 winter  ( Dec-Feb ) is anticipated.  This might seem dramatic to some given the prevalence of very mild winters over a ten year period!

    • Member

      As clarification, near normal winter temperature ( Dec-Feb ) in the Northeast is defined as a small deviation above or below.  Recent Septembers have been warm. At this juncture, Sep looks to be near normal.  I’m not prepared to call the winter based on this month.  However, I’m prognosticating another mild Oct / Nov.  That’s the average of the two months.  A chief meteorologist in the Boston tv market, who previously worked at TWC called the winter of 2020 based on Nov alone.  ( minus 2 F.  )  He flopped!  In fact it was his consecutive flop; calling for cold and above average snow.  More amazing, he admitted he had disagreed with the long range models.  After, he seemingly embraced climate change, as though he were converted.  It does not appear the producer has precluded him from issuing a winter outlook for 2021.   He probably uses the three strikes rule.

    • Member

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